---
title: "What has to happen if Villa are to reach the play-offs"
canonical: "https://readastonvilla.com/2017/03/21/happen-villa-reach-play-offs/"
type: "post"
language: "en-GB"
author: "Sheldon Muchmore"
section: "Features & Analysis"
published: "2017-03-21T21:14:21Z"
modified: "2017-03-21T21:14:21Z"
---

# What has to happen if Villa are to reach the play-offs

With 8 games left in the Championship season, the [Birmingham Mail](https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/aston-villa-championship-play-offs-12775824) have asked their statisticians whether there is any chance of Aston Villa reaching the 6th and final play-off position. Here’s what they concluded:

**What’s the Average Points Tallies of Play-Off Teams?**

The average points won by teams across the four play-off places varies dramatically.Those who have finished third in the last 10 seasons have averaged 82.1 points. Those in 6th have averaged 73.1. It will not surprise you you to learn that those who have finished 4th and 5th have accumulated points somewhere in between.

**Sixth Placed Teams and Points Tallies**

2016 – Sheffield Wednesday – 74 points\
2015 – Ipswich Town – 78 points\
2014 – Brighton –  72 points\
2013 – Leicester City – 68 points\
2012 – Cardiff – 75 points\
2011 – Nottingham Forest – 75 points\
2010 – Blackpool – 70 points\
2009 – Preston – 74 points\
2008 – Watford – 70 points\
2007 – Southampton – 75 points

Average – 73.1

**What Points Average Are Villa on Course For?**

Villa, who have taken 15 points from the last available 18, currently have 51 points.This is three times the amount of points that they accumulated last season in the Premier League, but it’s hardly top-six Championship form.

This means that Villa are averaging 1.34 points per game. If this was to carry on until the end of the season, Villa would finish just shy of 62 points. This is far fewer than the average for a side finishing 6th.

**How Many Points Can Villa Accumulate?**

With 8 games left, the maximum points that Villa can pick up is 24. Add this to Villa’s current points total, and they will finish on 75 points.

To achieve this, Villa would have to beat Norwich City, QPR, Reading, Birmingham City, and Brighton at home and Burton Albion, Fulham and Blackburn Rovers away.

**What About the Other Teams Aiming for a Play-off?**

Sheffield Wednesday currently occupy the 6th and final play-off place. They have 62 points from their 38 games, so if they were to gain 14 points from their remaining 8 matches, Villa would be unable to catch them.

To add to this, Fulham, Norwich, Preston, Derby, and Barnsley would have to completely capitulate in order for Bruce’s side to take advantage.

**Has Any Kind of Late Charge Happened Before?**

It has…but only once.

In 2009/2010, Blackpool had 51 points from their opening 38 games, and still managed to sneak into a play-off place with 70 points. However, the team in 6th place after 38 games that season was Cardiff – who only had 59 points to their name. That was just 8 more than Blackpool had whereas Villa currently need to make up an 11 point gap on Wednesday.

**The bad News…**

The remaining 27 teams that have finished in the play-off places since 2009/10 have all had somewhere between 55 and 72 points after 38 games…