A fresh Aston Villa prediction has backed Unai Emery’s side to fall three places in the Premier League despite finishing fourth and winning the Europa League last season.
The Guardian’s panel of writers have collectively tipped Villa to finish seventh in 2026/27, with concerns raised over the amount of change at Villa Park this summer.
Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne have all left, while Emery has also lost several members of his coaching staff.
The Guardian’s new Premier League preview questions whether Villa can maintain the remarkable progress made under Emery.
Aston Villa prediction highlights major Emery challenge
Villa finished fourth last season despite a difficult start and will return to the Champions League as Europa League holders.
The challenge now is replacing some hugely influential players.
Rogers played more Premier League minutes than any other Villa player last season, while the team’s drop in form coincided with Tielemans spending time out injured.
There are reasons for optimism.
João Gomes has arrived from Wolves for £38million, while club-record signing Johan Manzambi is regarded as one of Europe’s most exciting young midfielders.
Villa also retain a strong core including John McGinn, Ollie Watkins, Ezri Konsa and Emiliano Martinez.
ReadAstonVilla reported earlier on Monday that Emery believes Wednesday’s Super Cup against Paris Saint-Germain offers another opportunity to demonstrate how far his side have progressed.
The Guardian nevertheless raises one particularly interesting concern.
Villa scored 15 Premier League goals from outside the penalty area last season, converting 8.4% of their attempts from that range. The league average cited in the preview is only 3.6%, suggesting such efficiency will be difficult to repeat.
There is also uncertainty surrounding the fitness of Amadou Onana and Manzambi following knee injuries at the World Cup.
Villa have repeatedly exceeded expectations under Emery.
The Guardian’s writers clearly believe maintaining that trajectory will become significantly harder this season.
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