Should he stay or should he go? Paul Lambert in Focus.
The recent FA Cup Victory over Blackpool was overshadowed for the manager by the ‘Lambert-Out’ chants which were bawled out by the Villa Park faithful. The 45 year-old Scot has been bullish in his response, claiming;
“They (the fans) are entitled to say what they want, no problem.”
Perhaps the chants warranted such a response. Acknowledging shortcomings when in the process of remodelling our football style (the possession-is-king philosophy deployed after meeting with Pep Guardiola in early December), would undermine the system. This new philosophy is producing results of a fashion, Villa have averaged 54.2% possession under the new system, up from 41.1% before it was imposed… yet there are obvious deficiencies within this system, to be explored later in this piece.
Before examining the pros & cons of Lambert’s position, it is vital to recap on our season thus far.
This season in a nutshell:
After Villa’s best start in 50 years (10 points from 4 games), we drastically nosedived losing 6 games on the bounce. Whilst these losses did come at the hands of four of last season’s top 6 teams, the manner in which we lost was the disappointing part for most – we didn’t look like winning any of the games played in that period of the season. The 2-0 loss away to QPR on a rainy Monday evening summarised the spell we had endured, the performance was lacklustre and galling to watch. Calls for fresh blood in the manager’s seat gained momentum.
Anti-Lambert sentiment then stemmed not from losing, but from conceding late goals (Spurs, Southampton & Burnley), with the latter two ending in draws. We ‘dropped’ 7 points from those 3 games. Although Villa started much the better side in all the games mentioned, after the 30 minute mark we looked dogged and resorted to long ball, counter attacking football.
Two wins on the bounce against Palace & Leicester calmed the discontent somewhat, but the recent run of results has generated the most significant dissatisfaction to date. No wins, one goal and most importantly 3 points from 5 games. This dismal run has unsettled even the most ardent Lambert supporters.
It could be said that it will take our players time to adapt to this new possession style of football, and there cannot be too much disagreement with that. However we have been horrifically goal-shy all season (11 goals in 20 League games), so either the new style of play is exacerbating what was already wrong, or it is a different issue entirely.
12th place in the league just after the Christmas break would normally be a welcome surprise to most Claret & Blue fans; however the football being played, and the lack of goals generated by that football, is giving many-a-Villa fan cause for concern. With that being said, we are, for once, defensively solid, with the 5th best defensive record in the league.
The spine of the team; Guzan, Clark/Okore, Sanchez and Benteke seems to be a solid foundation. Yet the keep-ball philosophy coupled with the distinct lack of goals, is making many wonder whether we will be in or around the relegation zone after our next four Premier League games (Leicester, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea), and whether Lambert will still be in a job.
Lambert Should Stay
Lambert has worked under budgetary constraints whilst at Villa Park, with the “war-chest” dropping year-on-year since his arrival (12/13 ~£24m, 13/14 ~£17m, 14/15 ~£7.5m). Even with these restrictions Lambert has maintained Premier League status and has made some astute signings in the process: Okore, Sanchez, Westwood, Vlaar, Cissokho and of course, Benteke. The keeping of Benteke, at a time when it looked certain he would leave, was a masterstroke.
Should Lambert be given more funds to sign additional quality, we would perhaps see the real fruits of our new style; rather than simply incorporating unproven, bit-part players (Sylla, Luna and Tonev) into a shallow squad. Lambert was of course in the running for some potentially prosperous signings such as Tadic and Coutinho, who have gone on to excel at their respective clubs. However, due to lack of financial freedom such deals were not allowed to proceed. Although the subject of Lerner is not covered as part of this piece, should the Chairman be ‘reinvigorated’, or the Club sold to somebody who is, Lambert could be given the funds required to get Villa where they need to be.
Lambert’s previous achievements as manager should not be overlooked either. Securing back-to-back promotions with Norwich was not easy. Indeed, the style of football that Norwich played in those two seasons was admirable too; results-driven whilst also being fluid and attacking – this style of football got the Holte End chanting Lambert’s name in the first place. Many question why this style of football could not be recreated at Villa Park (the transfer funds described could be something to do with it). Moreover, it is more about objectives; Paul Lambert is still ordered to maintain status quo, Premier League survival, not strive for Europe (as was the MO for Martin O’Neill).
Despite this, we have had some successes under Lambert, notably against the big teams; Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool – albeit not all victories were convincing. On the subject of big teams; the recent performance versus Manchester United was promising, and seemed to show the benefits of playing keep-ball football. With greater practice, and an increased attacking impetus (both players and tactics), there is nothing to say that this style of football will not generate better results than it is doing.
Last, and not so much a Lambert positive, but nevertheless a reason for his staying, is the issue of replacement. While there are examples of a club’s fortunes improving in the aftermath of a departure (Pulis at Palace and Koeman at Southampton), history reflects a different picture. Redknapp at QPR (post Mark Hughes), Brian McDermott at Reading and McCarthy at Wolves made very little progress at their respective clubs, or even made them finish worse off. This alone is not a reason for Lambert to remain, but it should give pause for thought to his biggest critics.
Lambert should go
To offer a different perspective of Paul Lambert it is worthwhile to view his managerial record against his predecessors. Below is a table showing the record of the previous four Villa managers (not including interim), and their Win %. The table includes [the pre-Lerner] O’Leary to demonstrate that even the drabbest of Villa’s managers offered a better win ratio than Lambert.
| From | To | Games | Won | Drawn | Lost | Win % | |
| O’Leary | 20-May-03 | 19-Jul-06 | 131 | 47 | 35 | 49 | 35.88% |
| O’Neill | 05-Aug-06 | 09-Aug-10 | 190 | 80 | 60 | 50 | 42.11% |
| Houiller | 21-Sep-10 | 01-Jun-11 | 39 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 35.90% |
| McLeish | 17-Jun-11 | 15-May-12 | 42 | 9 | 17 | 16 | 21.43% |
| Lambert | 02-Jun-12 | Present | 109 | 33 | 26 | 50 | 30.28% |
Therefore Paul Lambert, by quite some margin, is the second worst manager we have had in the last decade, and the worst one to serve more than one season. Equally striking and in keeping with the statistics theme, are the other records Lambert has broken. These include but are not exhausted by;
- Biggest Premier League defeat (8-0 Chelsea).
- Most home defeats in a season.
- Most defeats in a Premier League season (20).
- Five defeats in a row without scoring.
- Most goals conceded in a Premier League Season (over 60).
More frustrating than all these records is the style of our football under Paul Lambert’s stewardship. Repeatedly the manager is tarnished with playing containment football, willing to sit back, soak up the pressure, and hit teams on the counter. On the face of it, this would seem a good tactic, and it has worked frequently against the big clubs who like to dominate possession and then attack. Depressingly, there has not been a Plan-B when it comes to playing teams who also like to sit back.
The current Keep-Ball philosophy is all well and good, but there is simply no penetration; no cutting, diagonal or through balls, nobody willing or ordered to run beyond a man and whip a cross in. It is good to see us steady our defence, and not ship goals like we used to, but without scoring, we; A) Risk conceding and then not being able to get back into the game and B) Play a style of football that does not just disappoint fans, but bores them. It is still early days for this new style, however after 2 and a half years of Lambert and containment-centric football, it is unlikely that a significant change will occur.
Paul Lambert has also frustrated with his insistence on fielding players who offer nothing additive, and are clearly out of form. The most recent examples are Weimann & Agbonlahor. Not only are the two short on goals themselves, they seldom create the chances that somebody of Benteke’s calibre can execute. This issue wouldn’t be so bad if Lambert himself didn’t state that he picks “players on form”. Equally frustrating is Lambert’s loan-outs and recalls. Players are sent out, seemingly to increase confidence and ability, yet when they are brought back into the fold (think Bent & Robinson), they are given the cold shoulder or sit on the bench – which is nonsensical.
Lastly, if picking the initial 11 is a sour point amongst Villans, the unwillingness to change things with substitutes quickly and effectively is even more maddening. Time and time again we have seen Villa struggling to attack and penetrate a team, or punish them on the counter. The introduction of fresh legs earlier in the game (specifically the likes of Grealish) would pose a greater threat to teams on the back foot, and would also take the pressure off our defence when our backs are to the wall.
Verdict
It is clear, based on the above analysis, that the Lambert-Out brigade have justification for their discontent, and have quite rightly been vocal in their condemnation of the manager. With that being said, there are things to suggest that he is not all terrible, and therefore the Lambert supporter’s in our ranks have sound reason for backing him still. Either way, the winds of change are blowing, and if results and the style of football does not improve, there is no conceivable way that Lambert will be in a job after our next four Premier League fixtures.
