Aston Villa have been given just a 16.2% chance of beating Arsenal on Monday night despite developing an impressive habit of upsetting the Premier League’s biggest sides at Villa Park.
Unai Emery’s team need a major response after their 4-0 defeat at Brighton on the opening weekend, while defending champions Arsenal began with a comfortable 3-0 victory over Coventry City.
The difference in those starts is reflected heavily in Opta’s pre-match simulations.
The Opta supercomputer ran the Aston Villa vs Arsenal fixture 25,000 times, with Mikel Arteta’s side winning 61.1% of simulations.
A draw occurred in 22.7%.
Villa won just 16.2%.
Aston Villa’s Arsenal record tells a different story
Those numbers make Arsenal clear favourites, but Villa’s recent record in this fixture provides Emery with considerably more encouragement.
Villa have won four of their seven Premier League home matches against Arsenal since returning to the top flight in 2019.
Before that run, they had managed only three victories across their first 24 Premier League meetings with Arsenal at Villa Park. Opta highlights the dramatic improvement in Villa’s home record against the Gunners.
There is an even more striking statistic.
Villa have beaten the reigning Premier League champions at home in each of the last three seasons.
Manchester City were beaten at Villa Park in both 2023/24 and 2024/25 before Liverpool suffered the same fate last season.
Arsenal now arrive carrying that status.
Unai Emery needs immediate Aston Villa response
The difficulty is that Villa hardly looked equipped to trouble the champions at Brighton.
Emery’s rebuilt side conceded four times and failed to score, while João Gomes was sent off.
Villa’s squad has changed again since then.
Nicolas Jackson has completed his move from Chelsea and was registered in time to be available against Arsenal, providing Emery with the recognised centre-forward he lacked at Brighton.
Leon Goretzka has also joined, while Emery faces several major selection calls following Gomes’ suspension.
The latest availability picture can be found in our Aston Villa vs Arsenal team-news guide.
Arsenal nevertheless arrive as overwhelming favourites.
Opta gives them a 61.1% probability of winning, and their record at Villa Park extends beyond the recent defeats. Arsenal have won 15 Premier League matches there, more victories than they have recorded at any other away ground in the competition.
That leaves Emery attempting to overturn some daunting numbers.
Villa’s recent history against Arsenal and reigning champions suggests a 16.2% chance might not tell the whole story.
